Analysis on Yesterday’s Markets
Since last Thursday, when US inflation data started coming in softer than expected, the market has been gloomy and yesterday we returned from a US bank holiday. After many days of optimism, investors have begun to reevaluate their position on risk due to disappointing service sector data coming out of Europe and, more significantly, China, where the Caixin service sector showed a significant slowdown.
Risk assets fell as rumors circulated about a possible new round of monetary easing from China’s PBOC. Several members argued for a rate increase in the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s most recent meeting, at which rates were left unchanged, and a 25 basis point increase is expected this month. As a result, the USD finished the day looking positive while most other currencies were falling.
Current Market Predictions
Several important assessments on the state of the US labor market have been released today. To begin, June’s ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is anticipated to be lower than May’s 278K mark, coming in at 226K instead.
New Forex Trading Signals
Although volatility returned yesterday, it was not high enough for us to close some trades that we had initiated as recently as last week. Our final tally for the day was three profitable forex signals and two unsuccessful ones, with the majority of our transactions being the USD/JPY currency pair. We anticipate an increase in the Unemployment Claims data and a decrease in the JOLTS Job Openings data to below 10 million. The FED will be keeping an eye on upcoming US ISM services as well.
Again, GOLD Underperforms on MAs
Despite the falling value of the US dollar, gold has been on a downward trend since early May. This points to a slowdown in interest in the precious metal as a whole. On Wednesday of last week, the price of gold dropped below $1,900, but it quickly recovered after bad economic data was released in the United States and a doji candlestick formed near the low. This week, the price climbed above $1,930, but it has since fallen down after purchasers were unable to break the 100 day simple moving average (SMA).
MAs maintaining support for the USD/JPY
Despite the general weakness seen in the US dollar towards the conclusion of the week, USD/JPY has been making strong gains throughout the past month. Since late April, the price trend has been up, and now it’s very close to a major mark of 145. Indicators of support have been moving averages. This currency pair has been trading above its 50-day simple moving average (yellow) for the past two days, therefore the plan is to continue buying on dips.
The Latest in Cryptocurrency
Does BITCOIN Have Stability at the 50 SMA?
As optimism returned to the cryptocurrency market in June, Bitcoin’s price rose sharply. The BTC/USD exchange rate eventually rose above $31,000, a sign of growing buying pressure. Price action has been consolidating after running into resistance while trying to go higher. We have witnessed a fall lower after the recent jump above $31,000, but BTC appears to be staying above the 50 SMA.
ETHEREUM’s Price May Find Support Near Previous Highs
The ETH/USD exchange rate climbed above $1,900 by the middle of last month, marking a significant increase in the value of cryptocurrencies. But it didn’t make it to our take-profit level, and it’s been falling ever since. After remaining stable for a while, the cost began to fall. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) served as support at the outset, but it was ultimately breached. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) proved to be a strong enough support level to halt the fall.
