Prospects for the Euro and the Dollar
Although making a string of higher highs and lows since the start of the week, the EUR/USD pair has been unable to challenge the yearly high (1.1033), and the upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may weigh on the exchange rate if it shows another increase in employment, as is expected.
The euro is weak against the dollar as the NFP report approaches.
With price action in EUR/USD consolidating below the weekly high (1.0973), the near-term uptrend appears to be losing steam, and developments in the US may influence the exchange rate as Federal Reserve officials maintain a hawkish perspective.
Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, acknowledged in a speech at New York University that “wages are still growing at an annual rate of about 4-1/2 to 5 percent,” but she also noted that “inflation remains too high and too stubborn,” meaning that price increases are still significantly higher than the 2% target set by the Fed.
Mester’s reiteration that “some additional policy firming may be appropriate” suggests the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may pursue a more restrictive policy, and the revision to the NFP report may convince the Fed to raise interest rates because the economy is expected to add 240K jobs in March.
It remains to be seen if the FOMC will continue to revise the forward guidance at the next interest rate decision on May 3 in the face of indicators of a weakening economy, which might support EUR/USD in the event of a weaker-than-expected NFP reading.
Although the Fed appears to be winding down its hiking cycle, the NFP report update could affect the near-term forecast for EUR/USD. However, if the exchange rate fails to hold above the monthly low, we could witness a drop in the near future (1.0788).
- As it breaks the series of higher highs and lows from the beginning of the week, the EUR/USD currency pair struggles to test the yearly high (1.1033) and may threaten the opening range for April if it cannot maintain a position above the 1.0880 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) to 1.0940 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement) zone.
- EUR/USD might drop to 1.0735, the 50-day simple moving average, if it breaks below the monthly low of 1.0788. Down there, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0610 would be the next point of concern.
- When above the monthly low (1.0788), EUR/USD could mount additional challenges to the yearly high (1.1033), with the next area of interest lying between 1.1070 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and 1.1090 (38.2% Fibonacci extension).
